As National Environment Sours For Democrats, Virginia Governor Moves to Toss Up
Virginia | September 24, 2021
The post-presidential election year Virginia gubernatorial race has long been seen as a bellwether for the national environment and the White House party-in-power heading into the midterms. Only one man has been able to break the four-decade-long streak of the opposite party winning control in the Old Dominion — Terry McAuliffe in 2013. As the former governor seeks to return to office, he faces an even more formidable challenge than eight years ago. He has a fiercer, less polarizing and more cash-flush GOP nominee in Glenn Youngkin and a worsening national environment for Democrats as President Biden’s approval numbers continue to drop.
Polling has long reflected a competitive contest, but since August, the race has tightened considerably. At the beginning of August, FiveThirtyEight’s average gave McAuliffe a nearly 8-point advantage. Now, that’s down to just 3.3 points as of Thursday. There have been outlier polls on both sides that we don’t believe reflect where the race stands. A University of Mary Washington survey (Sept. 7-13, 528 LV) had some questionable weighting and gave Youngkin a five-point lead. Similarly, last week, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll (Sept. 7-15, 731 LV) had McAuliffe leading Youngkin by nine, 43%-34%. It’s hard to fathom Youngkin is in the mid-30s and that there’s that sizable of an undecided bloc. Instead, the consensus is that most public and private polls peg the race where it likely is — a small, just at the margin of error or less, lead for McAuliffe.
Perhaps the most enlightening survey came from the Washington Post/George Mason University last weekend, which measured both registered and likely voters. Among just RVs, McAuliffe led, 49%-43%. But when an LV screen was used, it gave the Democrat just a 3-point edge, 50%-47%. And while McAuliffe is at 50 there, it’s within the poll’s 4.5 point margin of error. Additionally, Biden’s numbers were underwater, with 46 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval in a state he carried by just 10 points less than a year ago. Looking back at 2013 — when McAuliffe broke a 40-year streak by winning the race a year after a Democratic president was elected — President Obama’s approval ratings in Virginia at this juncture in the race were between 2 percent above and 10 percent below water. The final NBC/Marist survey of the race in mid-October pegged Obama’s disapproval at 52 disapprove/45 percent approve, but McAuliffe still won — albeit by a closer margin than polls had indicated. Four years later, Democrat Ralph Northam won by a larger margin than polls had predicted, but that was the first major election in the Trump era, and Republican backlash, especially in the suburbs and exurbs was already building. … (Excerpts from Cook Political Report)